Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 11.444417 13.116099 14.912706 16.983044 19.298717 21.804666 24.717300
2025-10-19 9.028893 11.304970 13.937506 17.190525 21.084070 25.575593 31.128701
2025-10-26 7.552070 10.022525 13.019789 16.892757 21.730155 27.535618 34.988776
2025-11-02 6.565199 9.183158 12.498406 16.955046 22.732682 29.907494 39.420073
2025-11-09 5.840832 8.554582 12.121450 17.082036 23.719811 32.203128 43.756702
2025-11-16 5.183389 7.928296 11.664139 17.026066 24.412586 34.103193 47.625206
2025-11-23 4.604955 7.339034 11.184305 16.867898 24.910857 35.718985 51.137323
2025-11-30 4.196077 6.946060 10.932012 16.983265 25.756849 37.803134 55.329280
2025-12-07 3.940767 6.752512 10.940591 17.453192 27.102048 40.604736 60.593027
2025-12-14 3.541273 6.292925 10.510368 17.234618 27.422220 41.960428 63.865925
2025-12-21 3.074007 5.676160 9.785734 16.510460 26.936485 42.116308 65.405112
2025-12-28 2.915256 5.552001 9.817394 16.942909 28.193583 44.834276 70.727264
2026-01-04 2.737488 5.383776 9.772328 17.261136 29.307873 47.413919 75.992580
2026-01-11 2.493543 5.075812 9.473106 17.147595 29.737418 48.979687 79.807271
2026-01-18 2.265169 4.771189 9.151627 16.967171 30.035521 50.336262 83.329854
2026-01-25 2.092999 4.553089 8.960111 16.986580 30.647414 52.189053 87.664332
2026-02-01 1.956320 4.388572 8.848291 17.129718 31.460235 54.375903 92.579106
2026-02-08 1.802581 4.174564 8.629400 17.067767 31.918877 56.006173 96.662991
2026-02-15 1.650701 3.948278 8.369073 16.911393 32.201004 57.350869 100.323959
2026-02-22 1.546958 3.811054 8.264451 17.026230 32.948368 59.470962 105.287613
2026-03-01 1.493517 3.775828 8.352112 17.497485 34.335811 62.690350 112.132721
2026-03-08 1.366349 3.565971 8.081354 17.278321 34.482451 63.834493 115.596295
2026-03-15 1.198542 3.245691 7.563677 16.552602 33.674652 63.323839 116.280481